Author:

Evgeny V. Balatsky Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the RAS, Moscow, Russia

Natalia A. Ekimova Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the RAS, Moscow, Russia

Abstract:

The relevance of the study on the social consequences of large-scale robotisation in Russia, as envisaged by the federal initiative “Development of industrial robotics and production automation”, stems from the contradiction between the necessity of achieving technological sovereignty and the risk of a surge in technological unemployment. The study’s aim is to quantitatively assess the potential workforce displacement and identify scenarios that minimise social tension. The methodological foundation consists of the econometric model previously developed by the authors, which links labour productivity to robotisation density, along with the proposed model for projecting the workforce displacement effect while accounting for economic growth rates. The methods of applied calculations rely on traditional macroeconomic proportions. The evidence base is the data collected from the official websites of the International Federation of Robotics, the International Labour Organisation, the World Bank, and the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation, as well as from the official documents of the Russian Federation. The paper examines three economic development scenarios for Russia in 2026–2030: baseline (optimistic), conservative (neutral), and inertial (pessimistic). Calculation results indicate that achieving the target robotisation density (145 units per 10,000 workers) could displace up to 16 % of the workforce. Under uniform annual displacement (2.7 %), the fate of these workers depends entirely on macroeconomic dynamics. The inertial scenario proves to be the most problematic, with approximately 740,000 people entering the labour market annually, which exceeds the absorption capacity of driver industries. The baseline and conservative scenarios generate moderate pressure only in the initial forecast years. The authors conclude that successful technological modernisation without social disruption is feasible only if average annual GDP growth remains at or above 3 %. The study substantiates the need for an interagency coordination body uniting the Bank of Russia, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Economic Development, the Ministry of Industry and Trade, and the Ministry of Labour to synchronise technological and social policies.

Keywords: robotisation; labour market; technological unemployment; labour productivity; manufacturing industry; scenarios of economic development.

For citation: Balatsky E. V., Ekimova N. A. (2026). Robotisation of the national economy: Social effects. Journal of New Economy, vol. 27, no. 2, pp. 6–26. DOI: 10.29141/2658- 5081-2026-27-2-1. EDN: XDGAAF.

Article info: received March 6, 2026; received in revised form March 23, 2026; accepted March 31, 2026