Author:

Irina V. Provornaya, Trofimuk Institute of Petroleum Geology and Geophysics (Siberian Branch of the RAS), Novosibirsk, Russia

Irina V. Filimonova, Trofimuk Institute of Petroleum Geology and Geophysics (Siberian Branch of the RAS), Novosibirsk, Russia

Anastasiya P. Samatova, Trofimuk Institute of Petroleum Geology and Geophysics (Siberian Branch of the RAS), Novosibirsk, Russia

Abstract:

The problem of the commodity export turn to the East and the emerging regional imbalances dictate the need to develop methodological approaches for assessing the impact of the gas market transformation on the socioeconomic development of Russia’s eastern regions. The paper intends to create a method for assessing socioeconomic effects from the gas extraction, transport, and processing projects given the plans for the gas distribution network development and export commitments to the countries of the Asia-Pacific. Methodologically, the research applies to the concepts of natural resource curse and sustainable development. The study employs the panel data model, analysis of direct and indirect effects, regression analysis. The 2013–2023 data on gas extraction and proven gas reserves are obtained from the Federal State Statistics Service and Federal Tax Service of the Russian Federation, and companies. The analysis reveals a positive impact of an increase in the gas extraction on the regional development (ceteris paribus, the growth rate of GRP in regions that boosted gas extraction was on average 29.22 billion rubles higher compared to regions that did not), as well as a market effect from the extension of the road network and the growth of investments directly related to the implementation of gas projects. The study confirms that the gas industry development in eastern regions may improve socioeconomic situation in them due to producing combined effects. The results demonstrate that there is a possibility to convert the resource curse into a driver of regional development.

Keywords: gas projects; extraction; investments; socioeconomic effect; panel data model; Eastern Siberia; the Far East.

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For citation: Provornaya I. V., Filimonova I. V., Samatova A. P. (2025). The impact of the gas market transformation on the socioeconomic development of Russia’s eastern regions. Journal of New Economy, vol. 26, no. 4, pp. 94–116. DOI: 10.29141/2658- 5081-2025-26-4-5. EDN: SVOZCY.