Author:

Viktoria V. Akberdina, Institute of Economics, Ural branch of RAS, Ekaterinburg, Russia

Abstract:

Geopolitical circumstances have drastically modified the development scenario of Russia’s industry and the conditions for functioning of industrial regions. The paper studies the factors determining the system resilience of Russia’s industry and the industry of the Greater Urals’ regions under the anti-Russian sanctions. Methodologically, the research rests on the theories of wave and systems dynamics, in the context of which it provides insight into the concepts “shock”, “turbulence”, “system resilience” and “resilience”, justifies the division of resilience factors into ‘innate’ ones conditioned by the emerged internal structure, and ‘adaptive’ ones connected with the implementation of industrial policy. The paper compares the factors behind the system resilience of the economies of Russia and its industrial regions for two periods, 2014–2015 and the first half of 2022, which feature identical external conditions, namely, the imposition of sanctions against Russia’s industry by foreign countries. The Greater Urals is taken as a representative industrial macroterritory that includes industrial regions of different types: industrial, resource, resource-industrial and agro-industrial. The evidence comes from the Federal Customs Service and the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation, including the data on the national imports and exports for 2013–2021 and the data on national and the Greater Urals’ industrial production output and indices for 2013–2021 and the first half of 2022, respectively. According to the findings, the 2014–2015 wave of sanctions did not provoke a serious crisis in regional industry in the Greater Urals, but created conditions for reducing import dependence, localising production within the region, optimising the structure and vector of foreign trade activities of industrial enterprises. However, the resilience factors, which were resourceful during the first wave, turned out to be insufficient for overcoming the crisis in 2022. The paper concludes that today the most relevant factors for industry are ‘adaptive’ resilience factors related to the implementation of the federal and regional industrial policy and in line with this provides potential avenues for increasing the system resilience of industry in Russia and its regions.

Keywords: system resilience; resilience; sanctions; industry; industrial region; the Greater Urals.

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For citation: Akberdina V. V. (2022). System resilience of industry to the sanctions pressure in industrial regions: Assessment and outlook. Journal of New Economy, vol. 23, no. 4, pp. 26–45. DOI: 10.29141/2658-5081-2022-23-4-2. EDN: JNACYT.