| Specifics of regional economies’ turbulence in the Russian Federation and the causes of its differentiation |
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Author: Elena D. Vaisman, South Ural State University, Chelyabinsk, Russia Tatyana Yu. Zheleznova, AO Chelyabinsk Mechanical Plant, Chelyabinsk, Russia Abstract: With the external environment changes gaining speed and economic processes becoming more complex, the interest in the concept of economic turbulence is getting increasingly intense. The paper aims to identify the patterns and causes of turbulence differentiation across regional economies in Russia. The study draws on spatial and regional economics, chaos theory in economics, the concept of resilience, and applies structural- functional analysis, mathematical and statistical methods, as well as matrix-based analysis. The 2014–2024 data come from the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation. The findings prove that turbulence in regional economies depends on how balanced the transaction and transformation sectors are: should there be a noticeable imbalance in either direction, the turbulence rises. In addition, the study identifies regions with the prevalence of exogenous or endogenous factors, and mixed nature of turbulence, specifies four federal districts where endogenous factors occupy an anomalously substantial role, and demonstrates that the greatest stability of a mesoeconomic entity is achieved when the proportion of the transformation sector is in the range of 40 to 55 %. The results can facilitate the strategic planning for regional development making the plans more grounded, guide investment decisions, and target state support measures. Keywords: regional economy; economic turbulence; shock; chaos; transformation sector; transaction sector; exogenous factor; endogenous factor. For citation: Vaisman E. D., Zheleznova T. Yu. (2026). Specifics of regional economies’ turbulence in the Russian Federation and the causes of its differentiation. Journal of New Economy, vol. 27, no. 3, pp. 75–98. DOI: 10.29141/2658-5081-2026-27-3-4. EDN: GWSHDL. Article info: received July 3, 2026; received in revised form July 27, 2026; accepted August 17, 2026 |
