Authors:

Mikhail V. Yershov, Dr. Sc. (Econ.), Director of the Center for Monetary Policy and Financial Markets

Anna S. Tanasova, Cand. Sc. (Econ.), Vice-Director of the Center for Monetary Policy and Financial Markets

Viktor Yu. Tatuzov, Cand. Sc. (Econ.), PhD in Eco‑ nomics (Sorbonne), Lead Researcher of the Center for Monetary Policy and Financial Markets

Abstract:

The sanctions against Russia enforced by the USA in 2018 have increased the relevance of the issues related to the preferable ruble exchange rate, which could accelerate national economic growth and improve its qualitative characteristics. The paper researchers the problems of the Russian ruble tran‑ sition to free floating and inflation targeting and a subsequent increase in volatility of its exchange rate. Methodologically the paper relies on fundamental propositions of macroeconomics and the theory of inflation. Statistical methods are used. The authors review the approaches to forming strategic reference points for currency exchange rates in a number of countries, reveal methodological, and applied bases for determining rational limits of the ruble exchange rate. The authors develop a theoretical approach to inflation as a multi-factor phenomenon and justify the preferable deviation of the nominal ruble ex‑ change rate from the purchasing power parity ruble exchange rate. These conclusions are made on the basis of the analysis of the Russian inflation and the role of the exchange rate factor in pricing. The sug‑ gested approaches to the problem studied will allow determining the directions for improvement of the exchange rate policy. The authors argue that making the ruble space more stable appears to be crucial for creation of the comfortable investment environment and elaborate on the measures targeted at stabilisa‑ tion of the ruble exchange rate

Keywords: economic growth; currency exchange rate; purchasing power parity; exchange rate re‑ gime; inflation targeting; exchange rate volatility.

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For citation: Yershov M. V., Tanasova A. S., Tatuzov V. Yu. Ob orientirakh po kursu rublya: kakoy uroven' predpochtitel'nee? [The ruble exchange rate: What is the preferable level?]. Izvestiya Uralskogo gosudarstvennogo ekonomicheskogo universiteta – Journal of the Ural State University of Economics, 2018, vol. 19, no. 6, pp. 16–32. DOI: 10.29141/2073-1019-2018-19-6-2