Author: Leonid A. Serkov, Cand. Sc. (Physics & Maths), Associate Prof., Head of Applied Information Science, Entrepreneurship & Commerce Dept.

Abstract: Influence of the exogenous shocks on endogenous business cycles is analytically investigated at the example of the nonlinear Samuelson – Hicks model. In an isolated model the influence of the exogenous shocks on endogenous fluctuations leads to emergence of area of uncertainty connected to presence of multiple equilibriums. In a model with interaction between economies the influence of the exogenous shocks on endogenous fluctuations is seen in the expanding area of self-oscillatory modes. The received analytical results are confirmed by numerical calculations and can be useful while studying and managing the dynamics of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models.

Keywords: exogenous shocks; endogenous fluctuations; business cycles; deterministic model; limit cycle; multiple eqilibrium