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Forecasting trends in e-government development in the post-Soviet countries

Authors:

Mikhail K. Chernyakov, Novosibirsk State Technical University, Novosibirsk, Russia

Maria M. Chernyakova, Siberian Institute of Management – branch of RANEPA, Novosibirsk, Russia

Abstract.

Though digital technologies are the driving force of innovations and economic growth worldwide, they cause numerous problems. One of such problems is uneven formation of the digital economy in the post-Soviet countries. The research aims to compare the digitalization processes in the territories of the post-Soviet countries to conclude about the problems and prospects of the digital economy in the post-Soviet space. The authors apply the system, com‑ prehensive and territorial approaches with the use of functional and comparative analysis for economic interpretation of the findings. The research novelty is the classification of the postSoviet countries according to the level of the digital economy development. The analysis of the post-Soviet economies’ readiness to the digital transformation indicates three levels of readiness: medium (0.25<EGDI<0.75), high (0.5<EGDI<0.75) and very hidh (EGDI>0.75). As a result of the ranking, the cluster with very high level of digitalisation includes five countries of the north‑ west, the cluster with high level of digitalisation encompasses eight countries of the southwest, and the cluster with the medium level lists two countries of the southeast of the post-Soviet space. The major challenges during the transformation into the digital economy are an overall tense economic situation and delayed measures on narrowing the digital divide, which lead to a decrease in the growth rates of telecommunication indicators of the former Soviet Union coun‑ tries. The authors argue that the most important task for these countries is to develop balanced methods for handling these challenges, which should be able to maximize the positive effects and keep the risks of the digital economy to a minimum.

Keywords:

forecasting; tendency; digital economy; development index; ranking; electronic government; management.

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For citation: Chernyakov M. K., Chernyakova M. M. Prognozirovanie tendentsiy razvitiya tsifrovogo pravitel’stva (e-government) v postsovetskikh stranakh [Forecasting trends in e-government development in the post-Soviet countries]. Journal of New Economy, 2019, vol. 20, no. 4, pp. 5–21. DOI: 10.29141/2073-1019-2019-20-4-1