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Applying Mathematical Forecasting Algorithms to Evaluate Economic Security of a Region

Author:

Artyom Yu. Lagzdin

Abstract:

The paper describes approaches to forecasting indicators of economic security of a region. The au‑ thor suggests applying a forecasting algorithm based on linear regression to calculate the forecast val‑ ues of dependent indicators using known independent ones. On the basis of the economic statistics for Omsk oblast a computational experiment is run using IBM SPSS Statistics to forecast the values of gross regional product. Then, the values calculated by linear regression equation are compared with the forecast values calculated using autoregressive models. Finally, the author proves the applicability of the suggested approach to preparing forecast of economic security evaluation in case some forecast values are set and known, for instance, in regional development strategies.

Keywords: economic security; evaluation of the economic security; indicator; forecasting.

For citation:

Lagzdin A. Yu. Primenenie matematicheskikh algoritmov prognozirovaniya otsenki ekonomicheskoy bezopasnosti regiona [Applying Mathematical Forecasting Algorithms to Evaluate Economic Security of a Region]. Izvestiya Uralskogo gosudarstvennogo ekonomicheskogo universiteta – Journal of the Ural State University of Economics, 2016, no. 6 (68), pp. 123–131.